Lee Stephens on the emerging drivers for media over the next 3 years.

The government’s announcement of an $11Bn deal with Telstra and the simultaneous launch of a national campaign about the benefits of the National Broadband Network (NBN) is probably more than just a mysterious coincidence. Despite the smell of a 2010 election in the air, the really interesting issue lies in the content of the highly polished 30 second spots.  Every application of the NBN within the advertisement, without exception, relates to real time video conferencing. In other words, the key selling benefit is that the NBN will give Australians the opportunity to see, hear and experience each other in a way that enriches our lives and the lives of our children. Fantastic! Except it won’t work that way and history has shown us why.

Hutchison’s launch strategy and advertisements for 3 Mobile in Australia, nearly 10 years ago, were almost an exact copy of today’s NBN campaign. Happy people with perfect teeth talking to other happy people with great suntans, all rendered perfectly through the communications revolution. The future was here!  Even taking into account the limitations of the 3 Mobile service at the time, the take-up rate was abysmal. It was not that people were trialling the service and opting out, they weren’t interested at all. 3 Mobile learnt a $500M lesson when they found out that the vast majority of our conversations at home and at work are short, unplanned and transactional. Almost all of us have video conferencing facilities at the office, and sometimes they even work. The vast majority of us use them sporadically at best.

The real benefits of the NBN are yet to be fully explored and go hand in hand with the wireless revolution taking place in our homes.  There is a silent explosion of wireless devices, powered by Apple’s interconnectivity and Google’s integrated Android platform that is populating the corners of our homes. From iPhones and iPads, to Android phones that share content with your Google TV platform. It is these devices and the content they call upon that will drive Australia’s NBN ambitions, not mid-afternoon calls to granny.
And this is where the conversation gets tricky for NBN management. If third party content is likely to be the main driver of our high speed broadband revolution, how do they make sure it is legally obtained and used? IINet’s recent victory against copyright infringement claims represents a legal victory for a company that does not have a moral obligation to censor the behaviour of its subscribers. How does that work for subscribers of the government run NBN network? After all, Australia is a signatory to all international copyright and intellectual property protection treaties. If IINet wins an expected appeal by the world’s major music and production studios, the NBN will be legally protected, but not politically protected. Australians will not subscribe to a service that is monitored or censored if there are alternatives to the NBN such as IINet that takes no responsibility for its subscriber’s behaviour.

The NBN is a good thing for Australia and the government has been brave to take the initiative. The 8 year timetable is ambitious and is now possible with the co-operation of Telstra. Over the next few years NBN management will realise that there is more to managing the NBN assets than rolling out cable.  The challenges will lie in the myriad of content, copyright protection and fair access deals that will need to be struck to deliver what consumers really want from the NBN. The question is whether these agreements can be both profitable and in the national interest.

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